NYC Phase 2: I’m Going To Stay Optimistic, But It’s Not Easy!
No matter how hard I try, I can’t seem to get off this emotional rollercoaster. One day I’m deliriously happy to be out with friends dining/drinking al fresco. The next, I’m in a total funk about what the future holds.
Perhaps that’s why this Lenin quote (below) resonated so strongly with me.
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
The quote came from this outstanding article in The Guardian
Amol Rajan of the BBC wrote about how the speed of technology has accelerated the spread of information and was fueling protests and civil unrest around the world.
“Centuries ago, the invention of the printing press suddenly sped up European history, prompting rebellions and revolutions everywhere. The difference today is how much faster information moves: what took 10 days in the age of Gutenberg seems to happen in 10 seconds in the age of Zuckerberg. The speeding up of history is itself speeding up.“
Amol Rajan, BBC/Guardian
those are the times we live in
And yet, despite the fact that COVID is rearing its ugly head again, life DOES go on. And I am here to observe, participate and recommend.
Scroll down for this week’s 7 top observations/recommendations.
1. WHAT CHANGES WILL STICK POST-LOCKDOWN?
More/Less
- MORE face-to-face get-togethers, LESS FaceTime. (My FaceTimes are down by half.)
- MORE take-out and on-premise dining/cocktailing, LESS home cooking. Sadly, NYC’s take-out cocktail experiment ends this Saturday, June 27. Fingers crossed it gets a reprieve.
- MORE deliveries, especially groceries. I’m still going to Whole Foods to do my own shopping but all my neighbors are getting everything delivered. Ordering groceries online will absolutely stick (online sales are up 400% from March to May!).
- Continued at-home workouts. I have had such great success with my virtual workouts that I doubt I will renew my gym membership, especially if it means mask-wearing, endless sanitizing, and social distancing from my trainer.
- MORE homelessness and MORE hotels converted to homeless shelters. 20% of NYC hotels are now housing the homeless. In my neighborhood, the newly opened Ace boutique property, Sister City, has been surreptitiously turned into a homeless shelter. I’m sure this is happening throughout the country. Word of caution to tourists: do your background checks on any hotels you’re planning to stay at to make sure they’re not shelters taking in a few unsuspecting tourists.
- An excellent read: How the Coronavirus Recovery is Changing Cities from Bloomberg CityLab.
2. POST-LOCKDOWN ECONOMIC REALITIES
One quarter of Small businesses expected to fail post-lockdown
As happy as I am to see restaurants and stores re-open, it’s painfully obvious that many will not survive based on the social distancing protocols now in place.
As a friend said about closing his once-thriving bar in Brooklyn:
“They’re letting me do 40% of the business but leaving me with 100% of the expenses.”
Jon, Brooklyn bar owner
Going CASHLESS – FINALLY!
It’s hard to get anyone to accept cash. Grocers, coffee shops, hairdressers, drug stores, ice cream parlors, casinos all use contactless payments. Parkway toll booths, subway entrances, and even zoos are also going cashless!
People worry that the virus can be passed along via bank notes and coins.
Before the pandemic, cash was used for 31% of transactions in North America and 79% in Europe.
Retailers making e-commerce and social media a priority (at last!)
Great info from Instore‘s Brain Squad on what independent jewelry stores around the country are doing to adapt to this new economy.
Their insights are relevant to all small businesses.
More E-commerce
The ability to sell remotely is more important than ever. Great photography, lots of products well organized and displayed on our website will help customers see what we have. We have always made a point to do this, but now it is a priority.
Jeremy Auslander, Roxbury Jewelry, Los Angeles, CA
More Social Media
We need to do more call-to-action to be able to sell if we can’t open the doors. We are taking social media classes and doing more research to be more effective.
Valerie Goodwin, Vaughan’s Jewelry, Edenton, NC
More cautious financially
We need to be more careful with our reserve finances just in case we are shut down by the government again. In this political climate, anything is possible.
Rick Nichols, Nassau Jewelry, Fernandina Beach, FL
More Security
We are getting quotes on adding security film to our exterior glass or possibly installing glass that is bulletproof. We have also spent a lot of time improving our web presence and e-commerce store in the past three months.
Jennifer Hornik Johnson, Miller’s Jewelry, Bozeman, MT
3. TRAVEL TRENDS
As much as many of us want to travel internationally, it’s NOT happening – and probably won’t until 2022.
But people are still itching to travel:
- Big shift in domestic travel especially in the United States with Las Vegas seeing the biggest spike in searches following casino reopenings. (Source: Travel+ Leisure).
- Camping/Glamping is booming. And Jay-Z and Will Smith are leading the way. Both became investors in the buzzy new Hipcamp app (sounds like an Airbnb of campsites). Glamping has also become more diverse. As of 2019, 51% of new campers are nonwhite. Google searches for “glamping” also reached an all-time high in 2019. And #vanlife has 7.1 million posts on Instagram.(Source: Outside)
- Flying private is surging. New customer sign-ups with industry leader NetJets in May were more than double the typical May. The growth is being driven almost entirely by new customers drawn to flying private because of health concerns and lower jet prices. (Source: CNBC)
- Blade’s private jet charter business is up over 600% from last year, and over 70% of the business is customers who had never chartered. The most popular routes for fliers are New York to South Florida, and New York to Los Angeles.
- Finally, my Great American Road Trip post from last week was a big hit. So many great recommendations and so many friends expressing interest in joining me at various points along the way! I’ll keep you updated as my itinerary gets finalized..
4. THE BEST OF JOE ROGAN
This past week I watched 4 absolutely amazing podcasts – all with brilliant weirdos (and that’s a huge compliment).
If you can only watch one, I beg you to check out Aubrey de Grey. He’s an English author and theoretician in the field of gerontology and the Chief Science Officer of the SENS Research Foundation. I especially recommend you focus on the last hour. Brilliant.⬇️⬇️⬇️
Also highly recommend:
interviewing Alex Honnold got Joe out of his comfort zone (first time I’ve seen that)
For those not familiar, a documentary titled “Free Solo” was made about Alex’s record-setting ascent of El Capitan. He’s super-smart and peculiar in a most endearing way.
5. WHO’S IN MOST DANGER FROM COVID?
Based on the recent spikes, younger people are getting COVID but they are far less likely to be hospitalized.
The most recent CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (thru May 30) supports that observation.
NOTE: Incidence is now roughly the same from age 20 to age 79.
Mortality Rate is all about underlying conditions
- Among middle-aged patients, those with underlying conditions have a far higher mortality rate.
- The total incidence of COVID-19 is low among 30-40-year-olds, but those who get it are 150x more likely to die if they have an underlying condition.
- For all age groups combined, the death rate for those with underlying conditions is 12x higher than those without underlying conditions.
6. 10 LIFESTYLE CHOICES MOST LIKELY TO KILL YOU (Source: ZME Science)
New research from a major longitudinal study by the University of British Columbia (UBC) tells us which social factors were most associated with death between 2008 and 2014. The team used data collected from 13,611 U.S. adults between 1992 and 2008, tying it to which factors applied to those who died between 2008 and 2014. It’s relevant today because we were in the midst of another major financial catastrophe back then.
The paper “Predicting mortality from 57 economic, behavioral, social, and psychological factors” has just been published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.
Of the top 10, at least 5 would clearly be exacerbated by the current pandemic lockdown.
7. NEWEST GREETING: “HOW’S YOUR COVID BEEN?”
I was asked this recently by somebody I hadn’t seen for a few months while out walking around the neighborhood.
It struck me as funny and put a whole new spin on this situation.
To Wrap Up.
Getting back to that feeling of being on a rollercoaster, let me sum up how I see this whole situation playing out.
I feel our leaders (of all political stripes) are using this pandemic to assure certain outcomes in November. Many of you will disagree with me but I stand by my opinion (and I’m not a citizen so can’t even vote – just an observation).
From my vantage point, we now have two options going forward:
- We learn to live with the virus. And note this does NOT mean being reckless but it does mean carrying on with life. It also means we make getting healthy a priority – something I’ve heard very little about in any of the myriad press briefings over the last few months. Many of the underlying conditions that are killing people can be addressed with diet and exercise. The only person I’ve seen talk about this is Eric Adams, Brooklyn Borough President, who had type 2 diabetes and almost lost his sight. He changed his diet and his life. He’s totally inspiring and more people need to hear his message.
- OR: We give up living and stay locked up, masks on, 6 feet apart until we’re dead from one of the factors listed in #6 above. Or until there’s a vaccine (which could be 5 years) by which time I, for one, could be dead from frustration and old age!
I’m going for Option 1. If you’re of a similar mindset I’ll undoubtedly run into you while we’re both out and about, maybe at Freeman’s or at the ice cream parlor or maybe while biking around town or somewhere around the country during my Great American Road Trip. I look forward to seeing you!
In the meantime, have a good weekend everyone!