Top 10 Predictions For Summer 2021. Good and Bad. Best to Buckle Up!!

Good Morning and Happy Friday.

This week’s Top 10 is based on observations primarily from my neck of the woods but similar situations are popping up around the country.

And just a heads up, today’s ZandlSlant is a little more testy than you might generally expect from me. But that is the vibe I’m picking up right now.

1. It’s going to be a wild, crazy summer. Think Spring Break x 10.
Gen Z and millennials are ready to cut loose (and so are a few oldsters)
  • Hedonism is in the air. We’ll see all kinds of hanky panky this summer. And with prostitution no longer a crime in NYC, things are going to get really HOT! Meanwhile, in Nevada, brothels have reopened and sex workers are reportedly looking forward to returning to work.
  • July 4th is going to be extra LOUD. If you have animals terrified of fireworks, you need to get the hell out of Dodge. Between fireworks and ATV/dirtbike street takeovers, July is going to be crazy!!
  • Have you noticed how many “Happy Hours” there are these days? And they start at noon. Bars must be making bank – they deserve it, this past year has been horrific for them.
  • Planning to fly somewhere this summer? Watch out! Especially if you’re heading to Florida. Unruly behavior on flights is off the charts, 1300 cases already reported this year (a 10-fold increase from the annual average — and we’re only 4 months in). The most recent incident involved a female passenger on American Airlines who attacked an attendant while hollering: ‘Cops aren’t going to do anything to me.’
  • EVERYONE is predicting it’s going to be a violent summer (and I agree). Murder rates are skyrocketing in cities large and small from Washington to Louisville, New York to Oakland, Kansas City, and Atlanta. So far, city leaders aren’t interested in tackling the problem. It is clearly easier to focus on defunding/reforming the police than it is to figure out how to defang criminals and gangbangers. Expect a lot of mayors to follow in Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms’ footsteps and bow out rather than run for re-election. (Source: Axios)

Bottom Line. This summer is going to be intense. Both CRAZY good and CRAZY bad. But one thing is for sure, we’re all going to have to pay more attention to our surroundings if we want to stay safe. In other words, put away your phone, and be extra alert to what’s going on around you. Also, watch the driving. Carjackings are the crime du jour. We had 3 in NYC over the last 2 days (in Soho, Williamsburg, and Hell’s Kitchen!!).

2. NYC is chockablock with young women. Where are the guys?
I’ve been noticing this since last May/June when outdoor dining returned
  • It’s especially evident at nicer restaurants (pic above is from La Pecora Bianca in Soho). Note: these young women were not together as a group. However, at least 90% of the patrons of this restaurant were women.
  • Even Loreley, the beer garden on my street, is now primarily patronized by women. Some are there for all-female birthday parties or showers, some just come to hang out with friends.
  • I’m not sure where the dudes have gone? Are they the ones that moved back home to live in their moms’ basements? I’ll occasionally see guys at Loreley after they’ve played soccer at the nearby park but otherwise, poof! The guys have disappeared.
3. MEN have become MUCH MORE OPEN and vulnerable ABOUT THEIR EMOTIONS and mental health

I was prompted to write this post after reading this wonderful article about Idaho2Fly, an organization that helps men deal with cancer through friendship and fly fishing expeditions.

“Cancer’s such an ugly word. Guys go through life feeling invincible and when that word hits them in the face, all of a sudden they recognize that vulnerability, but they still try to hold that in, and I think Idaho2Fly is the kind of organization that can help open these guys up and really deal with the challenges they’re gonna have, the journey they’re gonna have, the fears that they have, and being able to see that they’re not the only one in this challenge in going through it, it really helps change their perspective and helps them enjoy life again.”

Steve Drabeck, Prostate Cancer Survivor
My AHA moment regards this shift in men’s willingness to seek help, came as I listened to Bill Burr’s weekly podcast (shortly after reading the Idaho2Fly article).
  • Bill Burr spent most of his most recent podcast talking about being in therapy and how it’s helped him become a better father and husband.
  • As many of you know, ALL my favorite podcasts are hosted by dudes and almost all of them have lately been talking about needing to seek help for their mental well-being.
  • This week, I also listened to Eric Griffin’s podcast where he talked about being in therapy and how it’s helped him deal with the pandemic, his girlfriend, and the stresses of his career.
  • And then the third example (making it a trend obviously!!) was Adam Ray on his podcast with Yannis Pappas – again, same issues and not afraid to talk about being in therapy and how helpful it’s been in dealing with issues very specific to the business of stand-up comedy, e.g., the impact of cancel culture, me-too, etc.
  • Very interesting – and very positive – development.
4. Totally inspiring podcast with Casey Neistat and Steve-O!!
I LOVE CASEY NEISTAT! he’s super cool, authentic,and radiates SUCH positive energy
  • I have so much respect for him and what he’s achieved. He doesn’t even have a HS diploma and yet, he’s been made an MIT Fellow. He defines hustle for me.
  • And I love that he is supposedly moving back to NYC. He said he just vibes better with NY than he does with LA.
  • I saw him speak in 2017 at the NYPL and was so impressed by him. Here’s the link to what I wrote about him back then.
5. “He Said Yes.” Diamond Engagement rings for men, now at Tiffany’s
The Charles Tiffany Setting, a collection targeted at a groom’s left hand.
  • The collection, launched this past Monday, is called The Charles Tiffany Setting as a tribute to the iconic (and widely copied) six-prong Tiffany setting created by founder Charles Lewis Tiffany.
  • The company did more than $4 billion in jewelry sales last year, with women’s engagement rings representing 26% of total revenue. How much will the men’s market bring in do you think?
  • Prices range from $15,600 to $278,500. (Source: The Robb Report)
6. The Gates Divorce: Who knew nerds could be such rascals? Looks like Bill has more in common with Warren Buffett than just playing bridge.
Marriages, at the higher echelons of wealth, are unconventional at best.
  • I had barely digested the news of Bill and Melinda’s divorce when this juicy tidbit popped up.
  • Apparently, despite being married, Bill kept an annual tradition of spending a long weekend at a cozy beach cottage in North Carolina — with his old girlfriend (pic above, lower right)!!
  • The arrangement was part of the deal when he married Melinda in 1994.
  • “We can play putt-putt while discussing biotechnology,” Gates said of his private getaways with fellow nerd techie and ex Ann Winblad.
  • Bill’s best friend, Warren Buffett, meanwhile, married his second wife, Astrid, in 2006 after they had been together since 1978 (while he was still married to his first wife, Susan Thompson). Warren’s wife, Susan, actually introduced Astrid to Buffett so that he could have a companion while she (the wife) pursued her interests in the arts. The trio became close friends and even sent out Christmas cards together. Source: Business Insider)
  • I expect we’ll see many more divorces post-pandemic, from both ends of the age spectrum. People clearly used last year’s pandemic downtime to reevaluate what’s important to them. And perhaps we’ll also see more of these unconventional living arrangements – especially among the older set who don’t have Gates’ or Bezos’ $$$$$, and therefore are less likely to want the upheaval of a divorce?
7. So many new private members-clubs/hotels, and co-working spaces

This past week, I’ve gotten news of 3 new private clubs/hotels – all with attached hybrid work spaces (the buzzy new term for co-working). How successful they’ll all be, who knows? What surprised me tho was learning that demand for flexible office space nationwide increased by 21 percent in the second half of 2020.

Denver’s Clayton Members Club and Hotel — meant to rival Soho House (Source: BizJournals)
  • Restaurant is open to the public
  • The speakeasy bar will open in June and will also be open to all
  • Membership runs $3000 a year with a $500 sign up fee.
  • The floors that are members-only include a 2nd floor lounge and patio along with a co-working area and library
  • There is also a rooftop members-only restaurant
  • As at Soho House, there is a strict “no cellphone” policy.
  • Reviews I’ve read are very snarky so not sure how successful this will be in the Denver market.
Austin: Soho House opening in late May. And this is the real deal, not a wannabee!
  • Spanning three floors, Soho House Austin features 46 bedrooms, a screening room, a pergola-adorned outdoor lounge and dining area, a massive Texas art collection, and a rooftop pool — all embellished in a contemporary Spanish style.
  • Membership fees range from $1,140 to $3,500 annually (and worth every penny). (Source: Culture Map Austin)
Daybase Unveils New Model for Hybrid Workplace with the suburbs in mind
  • Launched by former WeWork execs, this new venture is banking on people in the suburbs (post-pandemic) wanting a place to work remotely beyond their living rooms.
  • According to the Daybase Press Release, they are launching this week with first locations in Northern New Jersey, in towns like Hoboken and Montclair.
8. America’s hiring blitz has mostly come up empty But that’s about to change.

Nationwide, there is a staffing crisis not only for restaurants but for retail (Lowe’s has 600 openings just in Phoenix), truckers (they’re essential to bring us food, fuel and medicine) and even pilots. Two new solutions are being trialed – and both look promising.

  • IT TAKES $$$$. When Klavon’s Ice Cream Parlor announced it would more than double the starting wage, going from $7.25 to $15 an hour, media coverage ensued and thousands of applications poured in. Klavon’s now has the staffing it needs to open every day this summer, filling all of its 16 positions over a few days. (Source: bizjournals)
Return-to-Work bonuses vs. unemployment benefits
  • Montana is the first state to offer people “Return to Work” bonuses (instead of unemployment benefits) to incentivize Montanans to reenter the workforce.
  • The “Return to Work” bonus is a $1,200 payment to Montanans receiving unemployment benefits as of this Tuesday.
  • The state’s labor force is 10,000 workers smaller than before the pandemic and the 3.8% unemployment rate is near pre-Covid lows. (The national rate was 6% in March.)
  • Weekly job postings in Montana are near record highs and the labor shortage is affecting nearly every industry in the state, according to the Montana Department of Labor and Industry. (Source: CNBC)
  • As of this writing, several more states including Georgia are going the same route.

WORK IS A TRICKY SUBJECT. On one hand, we’re told millions of jobs have been lost because of the pandemic but at the same time, every person I speak to who has a business (big or small) is facing major worker shortages. So go figure! I’m of the opinion that anyone who seriously wants a job can find one.

9. environmental doublespeak: it drives me crazy!

Especially when I’m supposed to believe that farm-based food systems are evil but solar “farms” that destroy the landscape are good (second pic below).

  • The U.S. Department of the Interior announced on May 3, that the Bureau of Land Management had signed off on a new major solar energy project called the Crimson Solar Project.
  • The 2000 acre solar farm (above) provides electricity to less than 90,000 homes. (Source: Interesting Engineering)
  • As it turns out I’m not the only one concerned about sacrificing forests, farmlands, and deserts for climate change experiments. Most of these projects require tree-clearing which severely impacts forest ecosystems.

“We have big multinational solar companies coming and cutting down forests. They’re allowing erosion into wetlands. We’re trying to connect our forests so wildlife can move, and they’re in there fragmenting it.”

Jane Winn, executive director of the Berkshire Environmental Action Team, a nonprofit in Mass.
  • Similarly, wind farms nationwide have long drawn opposition for killing birds and bats and altering landscape views. As more projects spring up, regulators say it will be increasingly difficult to analyze and mitigate their collective impact on endangered species.
  • In Hawaii, renewable energy proposals have drawn criticism and protests from locals who feel the projects will disrupt fragile ecosystems or damage sites that are culturally important to Native Hawaiians.
  • Per Maryland Secretary of the Environment, Ben Grumbles, conflicts are growing for states that are embracing renewable energy as they increasingly run into opposition to losing prime farmland. (Source: phys org – WORTH A READ!)

Bottom Line. Basically we’re going to be building factories for lab-grown food and converting farmland to solar and wind plants that coincidentally require huge amounts of copper mining for their infrastructure. Maybe cutting down trees, killing off animals by destroying their ecosystem, and decimating the natural landscape is the right environmental move but it doesn’t sound like a net positive to me!

10. People are fed up with Crime and homelessness. They’re ready to vote for change.
This is playing out across the country as crime escalates and quality of life deteriorates. I predict that By the end of the summer we’ll have reached a tipping point.
Rising Crime is Reshaping politics all around the country including NYC
  • NYC is in the midst of its mayoral election. None of the numerous candidates has made crime a priority although shootings last week were up 200%.
  • Andrew Yang (former presidential candidate) had been the leading candidate until Eric Adams (Brooklyn Borough President and former police officer) started blasting hard-left activists, who campaigned to slash $1 billion from the NYPD’s budget and organized protests where cops were frequently insulted and sometimes assaulted.
  • Adams claims he will push state lawmakers to tweak New York’s criminal justice reforms to give judges discretion to set bail in cases involving firearms, hate crimes, burglary and robbery. (Source: NY Post)
What Adams is saying is clearly resonating with average NYers (who couldn’t flee to the Hamptons) and who are fed up with what’s going on in their neighborhoods.

“I’m locking up criminals, it doesn’t matter what ethnicity they are. I have never notified a mother who lost a child to violence and they felt better if that child was lost to a gang-banger in blue jeans or a police officer in a blue uniform. I’m focused on innocent people not being the victims of crime.”

Eric Adams (when asked if this would not disproportionately hit African Americans and Latinos)
And with that, it’s a wrap for this week.

Even though the tenor of the blog is a bit “testy” today, I am feeling positive and optimistic about NYC. Plus I have an exciting weekend ahead of me starting with the Kusama show at the Botanical Garden today with my friends Joe S. and Anne L, followed by lunch at Cipriani Dolci (as recommended by my friend Rodrigo!).

On Saturday I head to the Frieze Art Fair, held at the Shed at Hudson Yards this year. I’ve heard it’s AMAZING. On Sunday, possibly heading to Governor’s Island for their art fair.

I’m leaving you with a few photos from last week (just to prove NYC is not totally falling apart, despite today’s missive).

Mourning dove on my fire escape, huddled on this plant for almost a week. I see no eggs. Anyone know what’s going on?
The outdoor dining options in NYC are scrumptious!
Yikes – scary!! What a job! But cleanliness is important.
a local wedding to balance out the Gates divorce!!
THANK YOU, David Moreland, for joining me at the Neuehouse Frieze Celebration
And with that, my friends, it really is a wrap.
Have a great weekend everyone and HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY to all the moms out there!!

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